Last updated: 22 May 2026. Primary source: Department of Education — International Student Monthly Summary, January 2026 release.
The Department of Education published January 2026 international student commencement data in late March 2026. For two of the three main sectors, the figures were sharply lower than the prior month.
Data scope: All commencement and enrolment figures in this article are combined — offshore + onshore — as published by the Department of Education monthly data tables. DHA does not publish a sector-level offshore/onshore split for enrolment volumes. Approval and refusal rates from DHA are labelled separately as offshore or onshore where cited.
January 2026 commencements: month-on-month
| Sector | Jan 2026 commencements | Change vs Dec 2025 (month-on-month) | Data scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| ELICOS | Not separately published | –37% | Offshore + onshore combined |
| VET | Not separately published | –23% | Offshore + onshore combined |
| Higher Education | Not separately published | +3% | Offshore + onshore combined |
Source: Department of Education Monthly Summary, January 2026 data.
The month-on-month decline in ELICOS and VET reflects a combination of seasonal patterns (January typically sees lower new commencements than the preceding enrolment intake periods) and the broader suppression in offshore student demand from high-refusal-risk markets.
ELICOS: –37% month-on-month
ELICOS (English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students) recorded a 37% fall in commencements from December 2025 to January 2026 (combined offshore + onshore). This is the largest single-month fall of the three sectors for that period.
ELICOS is the sector most sensitive to offshore visa conditions, because:
- ELICOS courses are often the entry point for students arriving for the first time — they are more likely to be applying offshore rather than switching courses onshore
- ELICOS providers are also concentrated in markets (South and South-East Asia) where offshore refusal rates are highest
- Under MD115, ELICOS applications that are part of a packaged course are processed at the priority tier of the main course provider — meaning the ELICOS component is not independently prioritised
For a full explanation of how packaged ELICOS courses are affected by MD115, see our MD115 processing guide.
What ELICOS commencement data does not tell you
The combined commencement figure does not split out how many students arrived offshore versus how many switched to ELICOS onshore. A student already in Australia who adds an English language condition to their visa path would count in this figure alongside a student arriving fresh from abroad. The underlying offshore-only demand may be weaker than the combined figure suggests.
VET: –23% month-on-month
VET (Vocational Education and Training) commencements fell 23% from December 2025 to January 2026 (combined offshore + onshore).
Across the 2025 calendar year, total VET commencements (combined) trended downward as offshore visa scrutiny increased and several high-volume source markets faced higher refusal rates. The January 2026 figure continues that trend.
Implication for ASQA freeze
VET was also affected by the ASQA registration freeze, which took effect 19 May 2026 and prohibits new private VET and ELICOS provider registrations for 12 months. No new VET providers can register with ASQA between May 2026 and May 2027. Existing providers are unaffected — they retain their CRICOS registration and can continue enrolling students.
For guidance on checking provider registration status, see our guide to choosing a provider after the ASQA freeze.
Implication for visa processing priority
Counterintuitively, the contraction in VET commencements is positive news for offshore applicants who are already applying. Most VET providers currently have significant headroom in their NOSC (New Overseas Student Commencement) allocations under MD115 — meaning they remain at Priority 1 for visa processing.
Under MD115, a Priority 1 provider means faster offshore processing: typically 7 to 12 months for VET applications (the longer range reflects VET's more complex document verification requirements, not queue length alone). Source: DHA processing priorities.
Verify your VET provider's current priority status at DHA Visa Prioritisation Status before applying.
Both sectors compared to Higher Education
Higher Education was the only sector showing growth in January 2026. A +3% month-on-month rise in HE commencements (combined) stands in contrast to the falls in ELICOS and VET. See our Higher Education sector analysis for the full picture.
| Sector | Jan 2026 trend | MD115 allocation headroom | Typical offshore processing time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ELICOS | –37% (combined) | Most providers: ample headroom | 44 days – 14 months (offshore) |
| VET | –23% (combined) | Most providers: ample headroom | 7–12 months (offshore) |
| Higher Education | +3% (combined) | Most HE providers: within allocation | 28 days – 6 months (offshore, median ~33 days at P1) |
Source: DHA processing priorities · Department of Education Monthly Summary.
Processing times in the table above are offshore only. Onshore processing is not governed by MD115 and is not published by sector.
What to do with this information
If you are considering enrolling in ELICOS or VET in Australia, the sector-level contraction data does not directly affect your individual application odds — your application is assessed on its own merits. What it does tell you is:
- Most ELICOS and VET providers currently have allocation headroom, which is positive for processing speed
- Offshore approval rates in higher-scrutiny source markets remain challenging regardless of sector — see our visa approval rates article for country-level data
- The ASQA freeze means new providers cannot enter the market, reducing the risk of enrolling with an unproven provider, but it also means provider choice is not expanding
This article provides general information only. It is not migration advice. For advice specific to your circumstances, consult a MARA-registered migration agent.
Data sources: Department of Education — International Student Monthly Summary · DHA Study Visa Statistics · DHA Visa Prioritisation Status · DHA processing priorities · ASQA — registration freeze instrument F2026L00600